Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2008 Oct 10 2201 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2008

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low.  A new region was numbered
today as Region 1004 (S08W17).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for 11 October.  Unsettled to active
conditions are expected for 12-13 October as a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.

III.  Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 069
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct  069/069/070
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  005/005-012/015-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/30/15
Minor storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/40/20
Minor storm           01/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05